Friday, August 31, 2018

Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump

My paper "Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump" is now published in the Journal of Macroeconomics. Here is an open-access link to the official version (through October 20, 2018). And here is my new website which has links to the ungated versions of this and my other papers.

The key takeaway of this paper is that, though gas prices and average household inflation expectations are correlated, consumers do not seem to overweight gas prices when forming inflation expectations. Since the impact of gas prices on expectations fades quickly with forecast horizon, energy price shocks seem unlikely to unanchor longer-run inflation expectations.

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