These announcements are quintessential updates to public information on the economy and fundamental inputs to asset pricing. More than a half of the cumulative annual equity risk premium is earned on announcement days (Savor & Wilson, 2013) and the information is almost instantaneously reflected in prices once released (Hu, Pan, & Wang, 2013). To ensure fairness, no market participant should have access to this information until the official release time. Yet, in this paper we find strong evidence of informed trading before several key macroeconomic news announcements....Prices start to move about 30 minutes before the official release time and the price move during this pre-announcement window accounts on average for about a half of the total price adjustment.They consider the 30 macroeconomic announcements that other authors have shown tend to move markets, and find evidence of:
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- Some pre-announcement drift for: advance retail sales, consumer price index, GDP advance, housing starts, and initial jobless claims.
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Source: Kurov et al. 2015, Figure A1, panel c. Cumulative average returns in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures market . |
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