Showing posts with label regulation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label regulation. Show all posts

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Independence at the CFPB and the Fed

One of my major motivations in starting this blog a few years ago was to have a space to grapple with the topic of central bank independence and accountability. One of the most important things I have learned since then is that independence and accountability are highly multi-dimensional concepts; different institutions can be granted different types of independence, and can fail to be accountable in countless ways. As a corollary, nominal or de jure independence does not guarantee de facto independence. Likewise, an institution may be accountable in name only.

A recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia about the independence of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) highlights the complexity of these issues. The CFPB was created under the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. On Tuesday, a three-judge panel declared that this agency's particular form of independence is unconstitutional. Most notably, the Director of the CFPB-- currently Richard Cordray-- is removable only by the President, and only for cause.

The petitioner in the case against the CFPB, the mortgage lender PHH Corporation, which was subject to a large fine from the CFPB, argued that the CFPB's structure violates Article II of the Constitution. The Appeals Court's decision provides some historical context:
"To carry out the executive power and be accountable for the exercise of that power, the President must be able to control subordinate officers in executive agencies. In its landmark decision in Myers v. United States, 272 U.S. 52 (1926), authored by Chief Justice and former President Taft, the Supreme Court therefore recognized the President’s Article II authority to supervise, direct, and remove at will subordinate officers in the Executive Branch.

In 1935, however, the Supreme Court carved out an exception to Myers and Article II by permitting Congress to create independent agencies that exercise executive power. See Humphrey’s Executor v. United States, 295 U.S. 602 (1935). An agency is considered “independent” when the agency heads are removable by the President only for cause, not at will, and therefore are not supervised or directed by the President. Examples of independent agencies include well-known bodies such as the Federal Communications Commission, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Trade Commission, the National Labor Relations Board, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission... To help mitigate the risk to individual liberty, the independent agencies, although not checked by the President, have historically been headed by multiple commissioners, directors, or board members who act as checks on one another. Each independent agency has traditionally been established, in the Supreme Court’s words, as a “body of experts appointed by law and informed by experience."
The decision goes on to add that "No head of either an executive agency or an independent agency operates unilaterally without any check on his or her authority. Therefore, no independent agency exercising substantial executive authority has ever been headed by a single person. Until now."

Although the Federal Reserve, unlike the CFPB, has a seven-member Board of Governors, several aspects of their governance are similar: the CFPB Director, like the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, is nominated by the President and approved by the Senate. The CFPB Director's term length is 5 years, compared to 14 years for the Governors-- but importantly, both have terms longer than the 4-year Presidential term. The Chair and Vice Chair of the Fed are nominated from the Governors by the President and approved by the Senate for a 4-year term. Both the CFPB Director and the Fed Chair are required to give semi-annual reports to Congress. See these resources for a more detailed comparison of the structure and governance of independent federal agencies.

I find it striking that the phrase individual liberty appears 32 times in the 110-page decision. The very first paragraph states, "This is a case about executive power and individual liberty. The U.S. Government’s executive power to enforce federal law against private citizens – for example, to bring criminal prosecutions and civil enforcement actions – is essential to societal order and progress, but simultaneously a grave threat to individual liberty."

Even though both the CFPB and the Fed have substantial financial regulatory authority, the discourse on Federal Reserve independence does not focus so heavily on liberty (I've barely come across the word at all in my readings on the subject); instead, it focuses on independence as a potential threat to accountability. As I have previously written, "the term accountability has become 'an ever-expanding concept,'" and one that is often not usefully defined. The same might be said for the term liberty. Still, the two terms have different connotations. Accountability requires that the institution carry out its responsibilities satisfactorily, while liberty is more about what the institution doesn't do.

Accountability is a key concept in the literature on delegation of tasks to technocrats or politicians. In "Bureaucrats or Politicians?," Alberto Alesini and Guido Tabellini (2007) build a model in which politicians are held accountable by their desire for re-election, while top-level bureaucrats are held accountable by "career concerns." The social desirability of delegating a task to an unelected bureaucrat depends on how the task affects the distribution of resources or advantages-- and thus, on the strength of interest-group political pressure. As Alan Blinder writes:
"Some public policy decisions have -- or are perceived to have -- mostly general impacts, affecting most citizens in similar ways. Monetary policy, for example...is usually thought of as affecting the whole economy rather than particular groups or industries. Other public policies are more naturally thought of as particularist, conferring benefits and imposing costs on identifiable groups...When the issues are particularist, the visible hand of interest-group politics is likely to be most pernicious -- which would seem to support delegating authority to unelected experts. But these are precisely the issues that require the heaviest doses of value judgments to decide who should win and lose. Such judgments are inherently and appropriately political. It's a genuine dilemma."
The Federal Reserve's Congressional mandate is to promote price stability and maximum employment. Federal Reserve independence is intended to promote these objectives by alleviating political pressure to pursue overly-accomodative monetary policy. Of course, as we have seen in recent years, the interest-group politics of central banking are more nuanced than a simple desire by incumbents for inflation. Interest rate policy and inflation affect different segments of the population in different ways. The CFPB is supposed to enforce federal consumer financial laws and protect consumers in financial markets. The average benefits of the CFPB to individual consumers is probably fairly small, while the costs of regulation and enforcement to a smaller number of financial companies is large. This asymmetry means that political pressure on a financial regulator like the CFPB (or on the Fed, in its regulatory role) is likely to come from the side of the financial institutions. In Blinder's logic, this confers a large value on the delegation of authority to technocrats, while at the same time raising the importance of accountability for political legitimacy.

Tyler Cowen writes, "I say the regulatory state already has too much arbitrary power, and this [District Court ruling] is a (small) move in the right direction." It is not the reduction of the regulatory state's power that will necessarily enhance either accountability or liberty, but the reduction of the arbitrariness of the regulatory power. This can come about through transparency (which the Fed typically cites as key to the maintenance of accountability), making policies and enforcement more predictable and less retroactive and reducing uncertainty. I don't know that the types of governance changes implied by the District Court ruling (if it holds) will substantially affect the CFPB's transparency or make it any less capable of pursuing its goals, as I tend to agree with Senator Elizabeth Warren's interpretation that the ruling will only require “a small technical tweak.”

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Emporiophobia!

For Christmas, my husband gave me a game called Forbidden Island. It is a "collaborative game," as opposed to a competitive game, created by "cooperative game master" Matt Leacock. Everyone wins or everyone loses. As my relatives and I puzzled our way through the rather lengthy game instructions, there was no end to the jokes about an economist playing a non-competitive game. I'm sure you can imagine.

The game, it turns out, is quite fun, and I've already been subjecting house guests to it (so be forewarned.) Forbidden Island came instantly to mind when I just came across a new article by Paul Rubin, an economics professor at Emory University. I was attracted to the article by the title, which introduces a fun new word: "Emporiophobia (Fear of Markets): Cooperation or Competition?" (Southern Economic Journal, forthcoming.) Though I find plenty to disagree with in the article, it is very thought-provoking and an enjoyable read. From the abstract:

Widespread emporiophobia (fear of markets) has important policy implications, as it leads voters to demand anti-market policies. There are many reasons for this anti-market attitude; however, economists could reduce emporiophobia if we stressed cooperation rather than competition in writings and policy discussions. In a sample of introductory textbooks, competition is mentioned on average eight times as often as cooperation. The fundamental economic unit is the transaction, and transactions are cooperative. The benefit of a market economy - increased consumer surplus - comes from cooperation through transactions, not from competition. Competition in a market economy is competition for the right to cooperate. Competition is important because it guarantees that the best cooperators will win and because it establishes the efficient terms for cooperation, but cooperation is fundamental. For most people, competition has negative connotations as it focuses on losers, while cooperation implies a win-win situation.
Emporiophobia is a made-up word, and my first instinct was to wonder if it described a made-up problem. Actual fear of markets isn't something I see much-- even in Berkeley, subsistence farming hasn't gotten trendy. But Rubin says fear of markets is "all around us."  He directs readers to Bryan Caplan's book, The Myth of the Rational Voter, for evidence of rampant emporiophobia. He also cites a recent article, "Economic Experts versus Average Americans" by Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales, and articles on anti-market bias in movies. When he begins to describe examples of emporiophobia, I realize that the term means something different than I thought:
"The statute books are full of laws limiting or restricting markets (minimum wages, farm price supports, occupational licensing laws, tariffs, numerous entry restrictions, anti-gouging regulations following disasters). Washington is packed with regulatory agencies whose purpose is to limit the functioning of markets. (I myself worked for two such agencies, the Federal Trade Commission, in the 'consumer protection' area, and the Consumer Product Safety Commission.)"
In other words, he classifies any desire to limit or regulate markets as fear of markets-- a fear that Rubin himself overcame. Rubin describes his own conversion from a young person who was "quite leftist, and even socialist, as was consistent with my demographic" to a "hard core believer in markets."

While I do not agree that  minimum wages, consumer protection, and the like exemplify a fear that needs to be alleviated, I do find discussions of the language and metaphors of economics very interesting. Rubin cites Deirdre McCloskey's classic work on rhetoric and metaphors in economics, and contributes his own analysis of the language in popular economics textbooks. He looks at the relative frequencies of the words "competition" and "cooperation" in a number of microeconomics texts.

Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok's Modern principles: Microeconomics mentions competition 8 times as often as cooperation, which is about average. The highest ratio, 20.43, is Robert Frank and Ben Bernanke's Principles of Microeconomics. Greg Mankiw's Principles of Microeconomics and Paul Krugman and Robin Wells' Microeconomics have the lowest ratios, at 5.45 and 4.45, respectively. I don't find these ratios terribly surprising, since these are micro texts so they likely include multiple chapters on market structure: the differences between perfect competition, monopolistic competition, and monopoly. It would be interesting to look at macro texts. In my blog, which is more or less macro-focused, I can't recall using either term very frequently.

Why does Rubin care so much about the terms competition and cooperation? He explains, in a thoughful passage:
People engage in economic activities in order to maximize utility, and winning or losing (for example, having the largest market share, or the largest profit, or the highest income) is incidental to the actual goal, although some may gain utility from having the largest market share. Then characterizing behavior as competitive is metaphoric, and is not in general the best metaphor. “Competition” is a metaphor borrowed from sports, and it is not an appropriate metaphor for the economy.

The most fundamental economic act is the transaction...Moreover, as economists we know that all parties expect to benefit from a transaction, else it would not occur. Thus, a transaction is a cooperative act–an act benefitting all who voluntarily participate in it. The essence of economics is cooperation through transactions and markets. 
He also adds a smart discussion of the zero-sum thinking that can accompany the idea of competition. Zero-sum thinking, when applied inappropriately, is indeed a harmful misconception. Some of his applications, however, I find problematic. "It is natural for people to observe those who are unsuccessful (e.g., the poor, the homeless, failed businesses) and assume that these people are the losers from economic competition, and that their unfortunate position was caused by competition," he writes. He adds,
"Why are some people poor? The competitive metaphor says they are poor because they were outcompeted, and perhaps their wealth was expropriated by the rich. (The folk saying “The rich get richer and the poor get poorer” implies causality.) But economists know that this is not why people are poor. They are poor because they have little or nothing worthwhile to sell–no capital, no valuable marketable skills. That is, the poor are poor because they are unable to enter into cooperative relationships with others. We may feel sorry for someone who is poor, whether this is because they have lost in a competitive contest or because they are unwilling or unable to cooperate successfully with others...There is no external agent to blame for poverty if the poverty is caused by a lack of things to sell, rather than by losing in a competitive contest. The solution to poverty caused by a lack of something to sell is to increase the human capital of the poor, generally through increased education. 
This is an important point. Much harm is done by seeking villains who have caused poverty, generally by being viewed as outcompeting others. For one example, consider that the poor may not have much to sell, but they may have something. But if we view poverty as being caused by successful competitors exploiting the poor in markets, we may restrict the markets in which the poor do cooperate (for example, through usury laws or minimum wages) and actually reinforce their poverty."
First, increasing the human capital and education of the poor is certainly a noble goal, but is an unrestricted market likely to attain it in the near future? I find that unlikely. Second, exploitation and expropriation can and do exist, even in a free market. Even if we describe markets as cooperative, there is no guarantee of fair play. Third, even if we describe markets as cooperative, unreasonable levels of inequality still result. "Lack of things to sell" or inability to cooperate are unsatisfactory explanations of poverty, and I see no explanation of how an unrestricted market would address them. I can't say that I have a fool-proof solution to poverty, but I do think that seeking and implementing better policy solutions is necessary. In that sense, a healthy fear of markets is a good thing.

One final note. If I think back to my own introductory economics education, the "c" word that stood out most to me was neither competition nor cooperation, but coordination. After all, the invisible hand is one of the profession's most famous metaphors.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

The Financial Sector after the Crisis

When Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced Ignazio Visco as his pick for Governor of the Bank of Italy in October 2011, it came as something of a surprise. Berlusconi was under pressure from various ministers to pick their candidates for Governor, but he ended up picking none of their choices and going with Visco. Visco was the third-ranked official at the Bank of Italy before he replaced Mario Draghi when Draghi became President of the European Central Bank. Visco did his PhD at Penn and was chief economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development from 1997 to 2002.

Based on a lecture he gave in London earlier this month, Visco seems to be a wise choice. Visco's lecture, titled "The Financial Sector after the Crisis," is epically ambitious. The first section of the lecture is called "'Good' finance as a force for good." He is heavily influenced by Amartya Sen, whom he quotes multiple times. The first Sen quote, referring to finance, asks "How is it possible that an activity that is so useful has been viewed as being morally so dubious?" It is apparent that Visco has reflected on this question quite a lot:
One can detect cyclical patterns in the public’s attitude towards finance, affected by the conditions of financial systems and shifts in the political mood about state intervention in the economy. Until the 1970s it was taken for granted that market failures required the presence and response of a regulator to avoid suboptimal results. Then came the great inflation of the 1970s, combined with high unemployment, and the emphasis shifted to government failures. Governments, central banks and other regulators were blamed for failing to prevent these developments. This eventually led to an ideological swing: a push to reduce the extent of state intervention. The failures of the “regulated economy,” the pace of technological advance and the rapid expansion of international trade after the end of the Cold War fuelled a protracted process of financial deregulation that was halted only by the financial crisis that broke out in 2007. The latter triggered a move toward re-regulation – or better regulation – that is still under way. The pendulum keeps swinging and will certainly continue to do so. 
The global financial crisis, with its huge costs for the whole society, has caused a further deep erosion of the trust in financial institutions. Witness to this are the widespread protests against the financial industry, from the Occupy Wall Street movement to the “Indignados” in Spain and their counterparts in other European countries. Anger has been fuelled not only by the discovery of wrongdoings and perverse incentives, but also by a perceived lack of action against those responsible, in a context of exceptionally high remunerations. The integrity of financial intermediaries’ codes of conduct has been called into question under many dimensions: honesty, the ability to manage financial risks and the commitment to take care of the interests of their clients.
He also quotes Sen as saying that “finance plays an important part in the prosperity and well-being of nations.” He takes a long historical perspective on financial innovation, from the “letters of exchange” introduced by Italian merchants in the Middle Ages to today's structured finance products and originate-to-distribute intermediation model.

He recognizes that both the distrust of finance and its role in prosperity come from its complexity. He praises financial literacy efforts as a way to alleviate some of the public distrust of finance, but cautions that "as the case of Bernard Madoff and others in the US and elsewhere clearly show – this is no panacea (Madoff’s customers were surely much better educated than average). Therefore, for purposes of consumer protection in the financial services industry, financial regulation and good supervision are the necessary complements to financial education and inclusion." When it comes to regulation, however, he believes that "Complexity was also used, somewhat perversely, as an argument in favour of a sort of benign neglect on the part of regulators."
The big financial players argued successfully that financial innovation was too complex and too opaque for the regulators to get their heads around. Indeed, they said, to safeguard the international financial system from systemic risk, the main priority was promoting an “industry-led” effort to improve internal risk management and related systems. This, in a nutshell, was the view espoused by the Group of Thirty report following the outbreak of the Asian crisis. But this thesis was often accompanied by the argument to the effect that “you, regulators and supervisors, will always be behind financial innovation; it would be better to allow us, the big financial international players, to self regulate; we are grown-ups, we can take care of ourselves...” 
The difficulties in coordinating the regulators’ actions, in the face of a natural tendency to preserve each one’s particular sphere of influence, was a powerful drag on the ability to rise to the challenge posed by a finance gone global... The phenomenon of regulatory capture was a definite reality...Financial regulation and supervision have to keep pace with developments in the financial industry... The coordination of financial supervision across borders and across sectors is a key condition for the stability of the global financial system. More importantly, regulators and supervisors have to pay attention to keeping financial industry lobbies at due distance.
The next section of the lecture, "In search of a better regulatory and supervisory regime," is worth reading for a summary of recent reforms by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. But more interesting and surprising is the subsequent section of the lecture, "Observations on the analytical implications of economic and financial instability."  He describes, with more lucidity and in fewer words than I have heard before, the challenges of "non-ergodicity."
Changes in institutional arrangements, technological innovation and revisions in economic policy paradigms continuously reshape the framework in which economic agents (consumers and businesses) make their decisions...When there is marked discontinuity with the past, such changes may be far-reaching and the past fails to provide enough guidance for the present (never mind the future). We should always remember that the financial system is part of a richer social, economic and political environment... 
However, a stationarity assumption of sorts underpins our theoretical and statistical models, in the case of economic forecasting and (macro) policy making as well as in the case of financial analysis and risk management. In general, the basic tenet is that future outcomes will be drawn from the same population that generated past outcomes, so that the time average of future outcomes cannot be persistently different from averages calculated from past observations and future events can be predicted with a certain degree of statistical accuracy. In non-ergodic environments, on the contrary, at least some economic processes are such that expectations based on past probability distribution functions can differ persistently from the time averages that will be generated as the future unfolds.
In case of acute uncertainty, no analysis of past data can provide reliable signals regarding future prospects. The challenges posed by the non-ergodic nature of economic systems may be met by recognizing that our models are by necessity “local” approximations of very complex economic and financial developments.
In the above paragraphs he cites a 1991 paper by Paul Davidson, “Is probability theory relevant for uncertainty? A Post Keynesian perspective." He also cites Charles Kindleberger: “For historians each event is unique. Economics, however, maintains that forces in society and nature behave in repetitive ways.” In conclusion, he adds:
This is not to say that all the analytical efforts of the past and the progress achieved should be disregarded. It means rather that in order to make the best out of them one needs to remember that models are by necessity “local” approximations to very complex phenomena and they should be used with good sense as a framework, not a straightjacket, for our decision-making. Quantitative analysis and modelling can also help to establish institutional and behavioural norms to rein in patterns of instability and developing proper learning devices to deal with major shocks and regime changes. In turn, models should take into account the impact of such norms on economic developments.  

Friday, February 8, 2013

Overheating and the Fed

This article is cross-posted at the Berkeley Blog.

Governor Jeremy Stein of the St. Louis Federal Reserve gave a speech on February 7 called "Overheating in Credit Markets: Origins, Measurement, and Policy Responses." Overheating is a term he uses to describe a credit market with low interest rates, lax lending standards, and high risk-taking by investors "reaching for yield." The problem with overheating is that it can contribute to financial instability. A boom followed by a bust can create harmful spillovers for the economy.

Both monetary policy and regulatory policy can potentially address overheating. In the speech, Stein describes an approach called decoupling, which holds that monetary policy should restrict its attention to the goals of price stability and maximum employment, while supervisory and regulatory tools should be used to safeguard financial stability.  Stein does not completely buy this decoupling approach. He recognizes that low interest rates are a cause of overheating, and that the Fed, by its power to control interest rates, can address overheating in ways that regulators cannot.
I believe it will be important to keep an open mind and avoid adhering to the decoupling philosophy too rigidly... I can imagine situations where it might make sense to enlist monetary policy tools in the pursuit of financial stability...Supervisory and regulatory tools remain imperfect in their ability to promptly address many sorts of financial stability concerns...While monetary policy may not be quite the right tool for the job, it has one important advantage relative to supervision and regulation--namely that it gets in all of the cracks. The one thing that a commercial bank, a broker-dealer, an offshore hedge fund, and a special purpose ABCP vehicle have in common is that they all face the same set of market interest rates. To the extent that market rates exert an influence on risk appetite, or on the incentives to engage in maturity transformation, changes in rates may reach into corners of the market that supervision and regulation cannot.
In the New York Times, Binyamin Applebaum writes that Stein's speech "underscored that the Fed increasingly regards bubbles, rather than inflation, as the most likely negative consequence of its efforts to reduce unemployment by stimulating growth." In fact, the Fed's concern about bubbles is not so new. After the Great Depression, it was widely believed that the stock market overheated in the 1920s, leading to the Great Crash in 1929 and the onset of the Depression. In those days, the word for bubbles or overheating was speculation, and it became a dirty word indeed. After the Great Depression, speculation remained a major concern of the Fed. The Fed very explicitly regarded bubbles as the most likely negative consequence of its efforts to reduce unemployment by stimulating growth.

For example, the United States economy was in a recession in 1953-54. In 1955, as the economy was recovering, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee refer multiple times to concerns about "speculative developments" or "speculative excesses." The March 2 minutes note:
The critical problem for credit and monetary policy in the United States, the review [from the Board's Division  of Research  and  Statistics  and  Division  of  International  Finance] said,  was how to thread its way along the narrow ledge that encourages sound economic growth and high employment and, at the same  time, limits speculative developments and discourages financial over commitments by businesses and consumers.
Minutes from May 10, 1955 say:
Business,  financial,  and  consumer  confidence  is  extraordinarily  high--possibly  too  high  for sound  growth.  At  this  stage,  the task  of monetary  and  credit  policy  is  to foster  stable  growth  in  line  with expanding  manpower  and  industrial  resources,  at  the  same  time  restraining financial  over-commitments  and  dampening  speculative  excesses.
In 1958, William Phillips published "The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom." This really kicked off the now-common idea that inflation is the most likely negative consequence of the Fed's efforts to reduce unemployment. If the Fed is now starting to regard bubbles, rather than inflation, as the most likely negative consequence of its efforts to reduce unemployment, this is not a new trend. It is history of thought repeating itself.






Saturday, February 2, 2013

Regulation: A Nation Divided

An immersion blender is a kitchen gadget most people never encounter until receiving one as a wedding gift.  My husband and I had dinner with another newlywed couple and got into a discussion about the merits of this wonder tool and the vats of cream of vegetable soup we have been creating. Our friends warned us that immersion blenders are a danger in disguise, according to the New York Times, and have resulted in numerous traumatic hand injuries.

More informative than the Times article is its comment thread, which is 335 comments long and reveals a nation starkly divided on regulatory philosophy. Comments range from this:
It's articles like this that often cause Americans to be the laughing stock of the world. Would you reach inside a blender with your hands? Pluck a twig from a powered chainsaw? Lick the blade of a knife? Wash your dog in the washer? We all do silly things and get hurt in stupid ways (don't I know it!), but really, do these things really need to be spelled out?
Sometimes there's just no cure for someone's careless mistake, it's no one's fault but one's own, and it's where Darwin intervenes.
To this:
Accidents happen and one must always be careful around such potentially dangerous tools, but this is clearly a case of irresponsible product design. They need to fix this and prevent any more of these frightening occurrences. As for the people in this thread that think this only happens to "stupid" and "careless" people, think again. Accidents happen for many reasons and they may very well happen to you one day... It is clearly a badly designed product and needs to be changed. If it takes lawyers and lawsuits to do that then I'm all for it.
Economists tend to think that the main challenge when it comes to regulation is to properly understand the system to be regulated and properly design the regulations so that they effectively alleviate problems with the system without causing undesirable side effects. The immersion blender story is so striking because this is not the case at all. It is a simple mechanical system that is perfectly well understood. The proposed regulations requiring interlocks or a different handle design are also perfectly understood because they are also simple and mechanical. Everyone can agree that requiring a design change would prevent some of these finger injuries. And yet they cannot agree about whether a design change should be required. The comment writers vehemently defend their pro- or anti-regulation stance. Some argue that accidents can happen to anyone and we need protection against scenarios that make accidents more likely. They want regulations requiring safety features added to the blenders and clearer warning labels. Others argue that the blender is not the problem; stupid people who do stupid things with the blender are the problem. Presented with the same facts, people tell different stories.

We will never be able to understand the workings of the economy or the financial sector as well as a mechanical tool. But we think that, as long as we work toward that goal, we can come closer to perfect regulatory design. Unlikely. Even when people agree on what regulation will do, they disagree on what it should do.