Monday, March 31, 2014

Consumption Contagion and Income Inequality

The trends of rising income inequality and the declining national savings rate since the early 1980s may be related, according to a paper by Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse. The authors find that higher levels of visible consumption by increasingly better-off households at the top of the income distribution induces consumers in the lower parts of the income distribution to spend a higher share of their disposable income. From "Consumption Contagion: Does the Consumption of the Rich Drive the Consumption of the Less Rich?":
"Our empirical strategy exploits variation across geographic markets and over time to identify the effect of expenditures by the rich on that of the non-rich. We ask whether, everything else held constant, higher levels of consumption by the rich living in a household’s relevant market (which we define to be either a state or an MSA in a given year) predicts a higher propensity to consume out of disposable income for the non-rich household. After establishing that such vertical consumption correlations occur, we then explore possible mechanisms. Our results are most consistent with the view that visible increased consumption by the rich induces status-seeking or status-maintaining consumption by the less rich."
Bertrand and Morse define the rich households in each state as those with above the 80th percentile of income in that state. Their baseline regression shows that a 1 percent increase in consumption (excluding housing) among the rich in a particular state translates into a 0.07 percent increase in consumption among the less-rich. They find no evidence that this could be explained by the permanent income hypothesis; rising consumption by the rich in a particular state is not predictive of faster future income growth by the state's less-rich. Thus, they conclude that "Our preferred explanation for the vertical consumption spillovers we observed in our basic results is that low and middle income households witness the higher consumption levels by the rich and are tempted to also consume more."

To test this explanation further, they use data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey and use the Ori Heffetz (2011) index to rank goods into seven categories of increasing visibility. Highly visible consumption items include cars, clothing (except underwear!), shoes, and cigarettes; minimally visible consumption items include health or legal accounting services and, yes, underwear. They replicate the analysis by goods category, and find strongest effects in the most visible consumption categories, consistent with a "consumption contagion" explanation.

As another test, they replicate the analysis using Census Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) instead of states. They use a measure of community segregation, indicating how closely the rich live to the less-rich in each MSA. In MSAs where the rich and less-rich live closer together, there is more consumption contagion.

Overall, the authors estimate that the savings rate of median-income households would be one to two percentage points higher in the absence of this "consumption contagion" effect. This is non-trivial but also not huge. What is most important is the empirical support of a particular type of departure from the Permanent Income Hypothesis. Many types of departures have been hypothesized, but quantifying their relative importance and carefully tracing out their implications for macro models is an ongoing task.

282 comments:

  1. This is one of those things that ordinary people experience every day that economists verify is true. I myself know I am a victim of this -- I can't really afford a tablet but that's what people richer than me seem to be buying, so I put a tablet on my credit card. Or I feel compelled to do that anyway.

    Seeing them on TV and in friends' and family's homes is like a trigger.

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  2. I suggest you look at contradictory evidence in the paper by Yuri Gorodnichenko, 'Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data', just presented in a London Business School seminar. Should be available at Berkeley!

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  3. I think our inequality problem would begin to be solved if we raised the minimum wage by one dollar every year.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Richard, yes, I looked at that paper yesterday after someone mentioned it to me on twitter. John Mondragon, one of the coauthors, told me "We expected debt was financing consumption but found no. leaves room for labor supply, liquid wealth, informal debt." So the two papers aren't necessarily contradictory, as one focuses on consumption and the other on debt, but it is an interesting contrast.

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  5. Veblen would not have been surprised...

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  6. Or see the paper in the first issue of the Review of Behavioral Economics (ROBE) by Robert Frank, Adam Seth Levine, and Oege Dijk entitled "Expenditure Cascades." It already has a Wikipedia entry and basically makes the same argument.

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  103. 123.hp.com/laserjet | hp123.com/setup you can print high-quality documents and graphic outputs using the wireless connection. Canon printer is shipped with a setup CD to quickly access the software needed for your printer.
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  105. Office.com/setup Home Student 2019 product activation key is 25 characters alphanumeric string available with Office Home & Student 2019 key card, or you can purchase a copy of the key that you will receive on email inbox. Office.com/setup Home & Student 2019

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  114. Office setup Home and Student 2019 is for students and families who want to get access for classic Office application that including Word, Excel and PowerPoint for Windows or Mac. A one-time buy loaded on one PC or Mac for use at home or school.
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  115. To Setup office home and student 2019, user should have Office product key that need to be activate with Microsoft Account online at URL Office.com/setup. To activate the product key, user should have a Microsoft account. Do remember the MS Office account details so that you can user is later for reinstallation of your office product.
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  116. To begin setup Office home and student 2019, office account and office product key both are required. Users need to activate the office product key online with Microsoft Account at URL Office.com/setup. Keep remember the details of your Microsoft account so that you can download, install or reinstall office product later on.
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  126. Canon printers are ideal for every situation wherever you need a document, paper, or photo print or even if you wish to scan, fax, and do more canon will make you learn how to set up a canon printer to get advanced printing features. ij.start canon , ij.start.canon

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  127. The Product key is 25 alphanumeric characters license code used to activate Office.com/setup Home & Student 2019 available to purchase online as well on retail stores. Microsoft covers the code with scratch-proof covering for privacy and security.
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  132. this is now become a global thing like income inequality thanks for telling us, canon printer by putting the for the ink in the canon printer and all a user seems to be works so better if they had some knowledge about the canon printer and used it in there to forward their printing.how it is associated to each of the other persons when it has to be fully in making the things good to perform in all of it, v

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  135. this is really a helpful blog for every one The trends of rising income inequality and the declining national savings rate since the early 1980s may be related, according to a paper by Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse.

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  150. Canon Printers are one among the simplest printers within the industry. The highly versatile beat one printer has features that make them stand out among others.
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  151. Welcome to the HP site. Download the software SW from hp setup and set up your printer. Then, Get started to installed hp setup and get able to connect the printer to the network through a USB cable or use a wireless HP printer.
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  153. In the year 2019 Microsoft introduced office setup home student 2019 so that much basic work can be completed by the students at home. This package was built for basic work such as making simple spreadsheets, Presentations, and simple word documents by the students to perform in their schools. If you have a Pc at your home without having this application installed then install it right now as given below.

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  158. Visit http://ij.start.canon and find out the best way to download Canon printer drivers. Canon printers are ideal for every situation wherever you need a document, paper, or photo print or even if you wish to scan, fax, and do more ijstart.canon will make you learn how to set up a canon printer to get advanced printing features.http://ij.start.canon | Paypal Login | Paypal Login

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  160. Office.com/setup Home Student 2019 Activate Home & Student 2019 using the license code. The Office product key is 25 digits alphanumeric key that you can purchase from a retail store. You can purchase the digital license from online stores as well. Office.com/setup Home & Student 2019

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  162. office.com/setup home & student 2019 delivers features across apps to help users create amazing content in less time. In PowerPoint 2019, you can create cinematic presentations with new features like Morph and Zoom.

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  167. Microsoft 365 is the best way to get all the apps of Office within one subscription. Get Microsoft 365 setup by visiting Microsoft365.com/setup .

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  169. Welcome to the HP site. Download the software SW from hp setup and set up your printer. Then, Get started to installed hp setup and get able to connect the printer to the network through a USB cable or use a wireless HP printer.
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