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1/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.19
2/1/20...Long-term money flows:<br /><br />1/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.19<br />2/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.16<br />3/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.13<br />4/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.18<br />5/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.23<br />6/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.21<br />7/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.17<br />8/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.24<br />9/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.25 peak in commodities<br />10/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.25<br />11/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.22<br />12/1/2017 ,,,,, 0.15<br />1/1/2018 ,,,,, 0.21<br />2/1/2018 ,,,,, 0.21<br />3/1/2018 ,,,,, 0.18<br />4/1/2018 ,,,,, 0.15<br />5/1/2018 ,,,,, 0.15<br />6/1/2018 ,,,,, 0.13<br />Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-79769284679953142792017-08-24T07:55:40.033-07:002017-08-24T07:55:40.033-07:00There are 6 seasonal, endogenous, economic inflect...There are 6 seasonal, endogenous, economic inflection points each year. These seasonal factors are pre-determined by the FRB-NY’s "trading desk" operations, executing the FOMC's monetary policy directives (in the present case just reserve "smoothing" and “draining” operations, the oscillating inflows and outflows, the making and or receiving of interbank payments).<br /><br />Every year, the seasonal factor's map (economic time series’ cyclical trend), or scientific proof, is demonstrated by the product of money flows, our means-of-payment money X’ its transaction’s velocity of circulation (the scientific method).<br /><br />Monetary flows (volume X’s velocity) measures money flow’s impact on production, prices, and the economy (as flows are driven by payments: “bank debits”). Rates-of-change Δ, in M*Vt = RoC’s Δ in AD, aggregate monetary purchasing power. Thus M*Vt serves as a “guide post” for N-gDp trajectories.<br /><br />N-gDp is determined by the volume of goods & services coming on the market relative to the actual, transactions, flow of money. Roc's in R-gDp serves as a close proxy to RoC's in total physical transactions, T, that finance both goods and services. Then RoC's in P, represents the price level, or various RoC's in a group of prices and indices.<br />Monetary flows’ propagation, are a mathematically robust sequence of numbers (sigma Σ), neither neutral nor opaque, which pre-determine marco-economic momentum (the → “arrow of time” or "directionally sensitive time-frequency de-compositions"). <br /><br />For short-term money flows, the proxy for real-output, R-gDp, it's the rate of accumulation, a posteriori, that adds incrementally and immediately to its running total. Its economic impact is defined by its rate-of-change, Δ "change in". The RoC, is the pace at which a variable changes, Δ, over that specific lag's established periodicity.<br /><br />As Nobel Laureate Dr. Ken Arrow says: “all analysis is a model”.<br />Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-25968307641684484442017-08-24T07:52:36.856-07:002017-08-24T07:52:36.856-07:00Monetary policy objectives should be formulated in...Monetary policy objectives should be formulated in terms of desired rates-of-change, roc's, in monetary flows, M*Vt (volume X’s velocity), relative to roc's in R-gDp. Roc's in N-gDp (though "raw materials, intermediate goods and labor costs, which comprise the bulk of business spending are not treated in N-gDp"), can serve as a proxy figure for roc's in all transactions, P*T, in Professor Irving Fisher's truistic: "equation of exchange". <br /><br />And Alfred Marshall's cash-balances approach (viz., a schedule of the amounts of money that will be offered at given levels of "P"), viz., where at times "K" is the reciprocal of Vt, or “K” has the dimension of a “storage period” and "bridges the gaps of transition periods" in Yale Professor Irving Fisher’s model. Roc's in R-gDp have to be used, of course, as a policy standard.<br /><br />Neither financial transactions not “animal spirits” are random: <br /><br />American, Yale Professor Irving Fisher – 1920 2nd edition: “The Purchasing Power of Money”:<br /><br />“If the principles here advocated are correct, the purchasing power of money — or its reciprocal, the level of prices — depends exclusively on five definite factors:<br /> <br />(1)the volume of money in circulation;<br />(2) its velocity of circulation;<br />(3) the volume of bank deposits subject to check;<br />(4) its velocity; and<br />(5) the volume of trade. <br /><br />“Each of these five magnitudes is extremely definite, and their relation to the purchasing power of money is definitely expressed by an “equation of exchange.”<br /><br />“In my opinion, the branch of economics which treats of these five regulators of purchasing power ought to be recognized and ultimately will be recognized as an EXACT SCIENCE, capable of precise formulation, demonstration, and statistical verification.”<br />Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-88825809867788861292017-08-24T07:21:23.713-07:002017-08-24T07:21:23.713-07:00Fucking stupid. The stagflationists, those who wo...Fucking stupid. The stagflationists, those who would target N-gDp and not R-gDp, simply don't know a credit from a debit. Reserve credits tend on average to precede reserve debits as evidenced by the existence of "float". Therefore it is a delusion to assume the non-banks can attract savings from the commercial banks for the funds never leave the payment's system.<br /><br />The way to increase R-gDp is to drive the DFIs out of the savings business, a velocity relationship.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.com