tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post5850157472533925995..comments2024-03-28T06:10:48.758-07:00Comments on Quantitative Ease by Carola Binder: Economic StorytellingCarolahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12783977056485775882noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-14604229446307587002013-02-06T13:05:55.815-08:002013-02-06T13:05:55.815-08:00Carola, I am not sure how broadly this generalizes...Carola, I am not sure how broadly this generalizes, but stories and narratives are an important piece of Fed forecasting. I am sure you're familiar with work by the Romers and others that take this narrative approach. See a new NBER WP by Dominguez and Shapiro in this style. One reason for stories is we all know with real time forecasting that the numbers will be wrong...to many moving parts, revisions ahead to focus on numbers. Stories can fit a wider range of numbers, though there are limits. Changing stories to keep up with a quickly changing economy is no easier than getting models to forecast turning points. And it may even be harder. It's a lot more work to change your story about how the world works than to change some numbers. But you can see in the FOMC minutes over the crisis that the story did evolve. Glad you are blogging on the transcripts, much interesting material.Claudia Sahmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03501488047889000055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-89845191051236368012013-02-06T13:00:40.166-08:002013-02-06T13:00:40.166-08:00Sociologists have also been studying narrative and...Sociologists have also been studying narrative and economic policymaking. Two excellent examples using FOMC minutes are Greta Krippner (2007) <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11186-007-9043-z?LI=true" rel="nofollow">"The Making of US Monetary Policy"</a>, and Abolafia (2010) <a href="http://oss.sagepub.com/content/31/3/349.short" rel="nofollow">"Narrative Construction as Sensemaking: How a Central Bank Thinks."</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-63949331687608145762013-02-06T12:55:20.965-08:002013-02-06T12:55:20.965-08:00How about a book on the economics of narrative exp...How about a book on the economics of narrative expertise? MichaelErardhttp://www.michaelerard.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-24247645356363485822013-01-29T13:27:31.628-08:002013-01-29T13:27:31.628-08:00Professor McCloskey, thanks, I look forward to rea...Professor McCloskey, thanks, I look forward to reading those. I enjoyed reading your work on the enclosure movement.Carolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12783977056485775882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-16976449731222874672013-01-29T11:06:17.049-08:002013-01-29T11:06:17.049-08:00Sorry, I didn't mean to be Unknown. I am, Dei...Sorry, I didn't mean to be Unknown. I am, Deirdre McCloskey, and wrote the two books on the narrative and the philosophy of science relevant to economics.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05638820963402539684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-31361607227847595932013-01-29T11:04:41.210-08:002013-01-29T11:04:41.210-08:00I invite you to have a look at If You're So Sm...I invite you to have a look at If You're So Smart: The Narrative of Economic Expertise (U of Chicago Press, 1990) and then Knowledge and Persuasion in Economics (Cambridge U Press, 1994).Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05638820963402539684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-58137971228252024072013-01-21T13:10:58.408-08:002013-01-21T13:10:58.408-08:00Thank you for that link. I like what you wrote abo...Thank you for that link. I like what you wrote about the difference between science and engineering. I went to Georgia Tech intending to become an engineer, which seemed like the natural thing to do since I was good at math. But my real lifelong passion has been stories, and I think that is why I am becoming an economist instead. I think studying economic history is also helpful in learning to look for coherent mechanisms that are convincing about causation.Carolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12783977056485775882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5624436327404149621.post-25871019032015716442013-01-21T10:33:32.524-08:002013-01-21T10:33:32.524-08:00Nice post, Carola. This goes to the crux of how we...Nice post, Carola. This goes to the crux of how we determine causation. First you expect to see correlation, or else you tend to presume no causation. But if there is correlation, the only way to really convince re: causation is to tell a coherent story about the mechanism, and how it works.<br /><br />We feel confident that the sun will rise in the east every day not just because it has always done so, but because we have a cogent, coherent, convincing, and comprehensive story about gravity, momentum, etc.<br /><br />Wrote this up a bit here:<br /><br />http://www.asymptosis.com/jim-manzi-correlation-causation-understanding-and-predicting.html<br /><br />Steve Rothhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11895481216028771016noreply@blogger.com