Of course, the Federal Reserve did not end up raising rates until December 2015. Did a greater fraction of consumers anticipate a rise in rates leading up to the hike? Based on the updated Michigan Survey data, it appears not. As Figure 1 below shows, the share of consumers expecting higher rates actually dropped slightly, to just above half, in late 2014 and early 2015. By the most recent available survey date, November 2015, 61% expected rates to rise within the year.
|Figure 1: Data from Michigan Survey of Consumers. Analysis by Binder.|
|Figure 2: Data from Michigan Survey of Consumers. Analysis by Binder.|